Gilbert REALTOR

The Gilbert, Arizona single-family real estate market saw some positive signs in September 2008.  While prices dropped, they were not as drastic as other southeast valley markets like Tempe or Chandler.  In fact, from August 2008 to September 2008, single-family real estate on average sold at $267,437 and $262,842, respectively.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Unlike other cities in the southeast valley, Gilbert’s selling prices are not declining at such drastic and unpredictable rates.

Year-Over-Year average selling price changes look like this:

Bouncing back from a 35% drop in August to a 25% drop in September, prices are still considerably less than they were a year ago.  However, the decrease in this year-over-year change may indicate that prices are starting to stabilize - especially if we see a similar change in October 2008.

Inventory levels and the average days on market (ADOM) continue to move in the right direction in Gilbert.  The ADOM in Gilbert now sits at the lowest it’s been in 26 months - 74 days.  This is fantastic news for the overall Gilbert market!

The other good news is the inventory level in Gilbert:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Gilbert continues to show stable inventory levels right at around six months.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

The Gilbert, Arizona real estate market continued it’s recent trends of price drops, seeing an average sales price of  $266,863 - down from $274,340 from the month before.

Take a look at this graph which shows the two-year price averages in Gilbert:

Gilbert, Arizona Single-Family Home Prices Over The Past Two Years. Click to enlarge. View raw data.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.

• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.

• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Overall, prices for single-family homes in Gilbert seem to be stablizing right around the $270,000 mark.

Like much of the Phoenix valley, the year-over-year price decline chart is not a pretty picture:

Gilbert Year-Over-Year Price Change. Click to enlarge.

The price of the average sold single-family home in Gilbert dropped 35% from August 2007 to August 2008.  While prices appear to be stablizing around $270,000, this past year has been brutal for homeowners.  Only time will tell if we are actually at the bottom of this real estate market correction.

Single-family homes are continuing to sit on the market for less time:

The average days on market for single-family homes in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

On average, single-family homes in Gilbert are sitting for 91 days before they are sold.  This is the lowest time on market since July 2007, which saw 82 days on the market.  This is a good sign for the real esate market - homeowners who price their home correctly, based on their local market conditions, will sell their home!

Finally, check out this information on the months of inventory in Gilbert:

The months of inventory in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.

• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.

• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

August 2008 inventory levels stayed at around the six-month mark indicating, overall, Gilbert is in a balanced market.  In balanced markets, prices have a better chance at staying stable as supply and demand are in check.

Are we at the proverbial bottom of this correction?  It’s too early to tell.  There are many outside factors that continue to affect consumer confidence including this past weekend’s sale of Merill Lynch to Bank of America and the fall of Lehman Brothers on Wall Street.  Many economists are actually predicting a decline in mortgage rates as a result - which could translate into more buyers jumping into the market.

If you’re interested in purchasing a home in Gilbert, you can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

We’re diving into video.  And we’re not talking home virtual tours with a slideshow of Carl Burns effected photos - they’re yesterday’s news.  We’re actually not even talking about specific homes.

Today, we’re proud to bring you Fusion Vision!  The goal is to bring readers a firsthand look at (mostly) Southeast Phoenix Valley communities and attractions.  From housing communities and buildings to favorite restaurants to quick tours of shopping areas and scenic attractions, Fusion Vision is our way of bringing a little piece of the Valley of the Sun to people all over the world.

Fusion Vision is by no means a professionally cut end product.  Fusion Vision is created by a man and his will… and an Apple MacBook, iMovie software and a fantastic Panasonic LUMIX DCM-TZ5 digital camera that records both HD video as well as takes fantastic photographs.

So, drum roll please …

By the way, if you want to get the feel for a Fusion Power Search personal website, you can view our sample site for Seville here as well as get a feel for the vast range of homes on the resale market in Seville.  At posting, listings ranged from $170,000 to $2.7M.

• Username: sevillesample
• Password: fusionpower
• Fusion Power Search Website

With a Fusion Power Search, you have your own, personal and secure website that constantly updates from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  You can save your favorite homes, throw out ones you don’t like, view all homes or just your favorites on a map - even cross reference homes with tax information.  You can also ask additional questions on a listing or schedule a time to view your favorite homes in person!

Fusion Power Search is a result of the fantastic new MLS system we have here in Phoenix.

USAToday website on August 26, 2008

There you have it!  USAToday shows the first “glimmer of hope” article I’ve seen in the mainstream media since the housing market began to tank.

There’s no need to repeat the article, you can read it here.  In general, the report from USAToday aligns with the year-over-year price drops that we recently posted for Tempe, Chandler and Gilbert.  USAToday reported a 27.9% drop in the Phoenix market over the past year.

The media plays an important role in creating the public’s mood for many things, including the real estate market.  So it’s nice to see a non-doom-and-gloom story.  As always, buyers and sellers should look at the actual and most recent data from a real estate professional and decide for themselves if now is a good time to buy or sell real estate.

Gilbert covers a large area of land in the far southeast Phoenix valley.  It’s the furthest community from central Phoenix but offers plenty of amenities and options for residents - with more shopping, dining and recreational attractions seemingly popping up over night.  In fact, Gilbert is the fastest-growing big suburb in America, absorbing many of the 115,000 net people that moved to Phoenix in 2006!

With so many people moving to Gilbert one might think that the real estate market may have fared a little better compared to other locations in the Phoenix valley.  Unfortunatley, that is not the case.  Gilbert is home many new home builders with swaths of land ready to add thousands of new homes.  This meant a few things for Gilbert over the past two years:

1. Because new home builders have much deeper pockets than traditional home sellers, they were able to compete by dropping their prices to make their homes cheaper than resell homes.
2. As a result, traditional home sellers - even those who may have purchased the home as a new build a year prior - have had to drop their prices to compete with the glut of new homes (that is, if they wanted to actually sell their home).
3. Because new home builders also offered “Zero Down” financing, many new home buyers have found themselves with negative equity if they bought at the height of the real estate market.
4. The end result is that home prices in Gilbert have declined dramatically over the past two years like most of the Phoenix real estate market.

Just how much have prices declined?  The following graph shows the average prices for homes listed in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service:

Two-Year Pricing Statistics in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

You can view the raw data for this article here.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold.  In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Like much of the Phoenix real estate market, Gilbert’s prices really started to decline in the last quarter of 2007 and have started to stabilize over the past three months.  From a height of $367,183 in December of 2006, the average sold home now sells for $274,340 in Gilbert.

As in our previous analysis of Tempe and Chandler, Gilbert’s homeowners may be facing negative equity positions.  Take this simple example:

If Average Joe purchased a home in December 2006 for the average selling price of $367,183 with 20% ($73,437) down, he would’ve taken out a mortgage for $293,746.  If his home’s value was July 2008’s current selling average of $274,340, he’d have a negative equity of $19,406.  If Average Joe’s home appreciates 5% a year, on average, his home will be able to sell for what he purchased it for in six years.

This, of course, is a very ideal situation.  It’s assuming Average Joe put down 20% and we are at the bottom of the pricing declines as of July 2008.  Still, in this more-than-ideal situation, Average Joe won’t be able to sell his home for the same as he bought it until July 2014.  But, Average Joe shouldn’t have too many worries if he actually purchased his home to live in and plans on being in it for the next seven to ten years.

In terms of the percentage of decline year-over-year, here’s what average selling prices in Gilbert have done over the past year:

The percent change in single-family home prices in Gilbert, Arizona over the past year. Click to enlarge.

Taking in these two pieces of data - average selling prices and year-over-year-declines - a few things should be noted:

• Average selling prices in Gilbert, Arizona’s single-family home real estate market appear to be stabilizing.
• The average selling price has been in the high $270,000’s since March 2008.

If prices appear to be stabilizing, then how long are homes sitting on the market in Gilbert?  Take a look at this information:

The Average Days on Market For Single-Family Homes in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As in Tempe and Chandler, late 2007 and early 2008 saw the longest time period.  Maxing out at 120 days in February 2008, the ADOM in Gilbert has been flirting with 100 days since March of 2008.  The spike in January and February 2008 could be attributed to the “slow season” of real estate.  On average, however, Gilbert’s ADOM has been prety steady throughout the two-year time period at about 97 days.  This could be a result of Gilbert’s fast-growing nature discussed earlier.

And, drum roll, please … let’s look at the inventory levels in Gilbert.  As always:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase.  As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers.  This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory.  Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike.  Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers.  Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price.  Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Here is where Gilbert’s single-family home market stands:

The inventory levels in Gilbert, Arizona's single-family real estate market for the past two years. Click to enlarge.

July 2008 reached the magic number of six months!  In fact, a full month of inventory was dropped from June 2008 to July 2008 (7.2 months to 6.2 months).  Gilbert has been returning to a balanced market as of late.  It should be noted that May, June and July are often brisk real estate selling months as families use summer break to move and relocate.  It will be interesting to see what August 2008 brings.

There are still outside factors that can’t be controlled for all of the Phoenix Valley’s real estate market.  Those include foreclosures and the credit-crisis.  Many news reports have indicated that foreclosures have peaked in Phoenix - which is a good thing.  As the foreclosures on the market are bought up prices can continue to stabilize.  The credit-crisis continues to be a big factor in the real estate market as buyers are finding they can’t get approved for mortgages even with decent credit.

And with the recent changes in FHA Mortgage Loans that take effect on October 1, more buyers may be pushed out of the market.  Currently, a buyer needs 3% down for an FHA mortgage.  On October 1, that requirement increases to 3.5%.  The larger concern, however, is that FHA will no longer allow sellers or home builders to gift the down payment - which has been a key selling point for builders over the past few years with “zero down” offerings as well as for motivated sellers to get their home sold.

Overall, the single-family real estate market in Gilbert, Arizona appears to be stabilizing.  Average prices have stabilized in the high $270,000’s since the second quarter of 2008 while inventory levels have stabilized to just over 6 months in July 2008.

If you’re interested in purchasing a home in Gilbert, you can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

I’ve decided to start a new series at Arizona Fusion - ‘Southeast Valley Spotlight.’  Every so often I’ll showcase something great about the Southeast Phoenix Valley - a special attraction, restaurant, real estate development or quite frankly, whatever I please.  So, drum roll please …

Cosmo Dog Park - The Ultimate Dog Park

Rated as the Best Dog Park in America in 2007 by Dog Channel, Cosmo Dog Park is located just east of San Tan Village/Greenfield Road on Ray Road in Gilbert, Arizona.  I chose Cosmo Dog Park as my first Southeast Valley Spotlight because I just happened to go there this morning with our dog, Hoosier (yes, we are from Indiana).  In fact, why don’t I share a picture of my dog who has no cajones to actually swim in the water …

Hoosier - Scared To Take The Plunge at Cosmo Dog Park in Gilbert, Arizona

Cosmo Dog Park is dog heaven.  Here, you’ll find other dog lovers from all across the Phoenix Valley congregate to let their dogs be dogs.  There’s actually three fenced in areas for dogs:

• a large grassy yard with obstacles
• a small grassy yard for smaller dogs
• a dog beach complete with a man-made lake and dock for dogs to launch off.

Every one of the fenced in areas has a shaded patio and seating for humans to escape the hot sun as well as a station to hose your dog down after getting dirty.  There’s also restrooms, a human drinking fountain and even a fire hydrant dog drinking fountain (which some dogs choose to wade in).  The City of Gilbert website says there are four fenced in areas but I can only recall three - and their website only shows three.  We usually only frequent the dog beach area.

Cosmo Dog Park is located within a growing area of Gilbert.  Bordering the east side of the park is Agritopia, a unique mini-master planned community.  I call it “mini” because this development is unlike most suburban subdivisions and actually reinforces a theme of Arizona’s agricultural past very, very well.  But, that may be another Southeast Valley Spotlight.

Other real estate developments near Cosmo Dog Park include the large community of Lyon’s Gate which is located just across the street on Ray from Cosmo Dog Park.  Lyon’s Gate is probably about 35 - 40% developed and includes homes from the $180’s for a new build with William Lyon Homes.  Also, Hacienda Builders is building new homes from $210’s in Lyon’s Gate.  Lyon’s Gate features quite a few grassy areas, tot lots and a community pool.

Also nearby Cosmo Dog Park is the new San Tan Village Mall, which is a regional mall that features fantastic shopping options and great dining options.  Next to San Tan Village is a power center with Wal-Mart, Kohls, Old Navy and more dining and shopping options.

If you’re interested in living in a growing area of Gilbert with all these conveniences, set up a fusionpower search today.  You’ll get a personal website with listings that meet your search criteria, automatic email notifications of new or changed property listings, you can ask questions about listings online, save your favorites and throw out the ones you dislike and schedule showings with Arizona Fusion Real Estate online.

I recently stumbled upon a listing in the Tempe area (see previous post) that at first made me half laugh at the stupidity of the agent selling the condo and half empathetically cry for the sellers of the condo.  

“The property, which is listed near downtown Tempe for just under $400,000 is incorrectly listed as being within the Cave Creek Unified District.  That’s one hell of a bus ride for kids to Cave Creek which is roughly a 36 mile drive to the northern-most suburb city of the Phoenix metro area.”

Worse yet is the description used in the listing - or lack of description for that matter.  It gives no detail of the property or the amenities located within this development or the convenience of future light rail and the proximity to downtown Tempe.  The pictures (there are only three and the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service now allows unlimited photos) posted for the listing look like they were taken with the first cell phone camera ever created as they are grainy and extremely small.  Worse yet, the agent “stole” a stock photo of a Tempe Town Lake sunset and the Mill Avenue Bridge - and used it as one of the three photos to market the property.  

Now, for the icing on the cake - the property is listed as “Owner/Agent” which means the agent selling the property is also the owner.  My empathetic cry for the seller quickly went away.  Can you imagine what this agent does for his/her clients if this is all he/she does for his/her own property!?!  It’s no wonder the real estate industry has a bad image - who sees the value in paying an agent upwards of $24,000 to market a property in that way?  I sure as hell wouldn’t.

Sellers:  Check and recheck your complete MLS listing for accuracies!  Don’t ever assume, no matter who your agent is, that they’ve listed your home with 100% accuracy.  Better yet, don’t assume they’ve posted it in it’s best light.  There are a few way to check your MLS listing.  The easiest is to simply ask your agent for the complete listing printout.  Ask for the “Agent Report” so that you see everything another REALTOR would see.  Verify that all the information in the listing is correct and that nothing has been left out.

Better yet, go to websites that reciprocate MLS data - perhaps ours - and check your listing’s photos and (hopefully you have one) virtual tour.  On our site, you can view the pictures in full-screen - but only if your agent has loaded photos that are of full-screen quality.  If they haven’t, they’ll be small photos or even grainy if they are of super-low quality.  Not only that, verify that your photos actually present your property in it’s best light.  That means either your agent is a great photographer with a great camera or your agent hired a professional photographer.  

With well over 80% of home buyers using the internet to start their search it’s very easy for them to move on to the next listing if the pictures for your property don’t stir their interest.  Most of us are visual people and will first look at the pictures and then decide if we actually want to read about the property.  Make sure your pictures and virtual tour engage buyers rather than disengage.  And make sure the information on your property is 100% accurate to ensure it comes up on searches as it should.