Phoenix Real Estate Prices

There were few positive signs in the Chandler, Arizona single-family real estate market in October 2008.  The most positive statistic was that the average selling price rose nearly $20,000 from the previous month.  However, the average days a single-family home in Chandler sat on the market rose after falling for the previous four months while the months of inventory increased pretty dramatically.

The average selling price in Chandler in October 2008 was $277,662, up from $257,606 in September.  On average, homes that went under contract in October did so at just under 96% of the listing/asking price.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Chandler.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Chandler.

Compared to a year earlier, prices in Chandler have declined by 17%.  Check out the graph below, which indicates that price declines may be starting to stabilize:

If going just off the graph above, it may indicate that prices are starting to stablize.  However, one piece of information is never enough to make valid conclusions.  We are entering the slower real estate season as school is in full swing, families are thinking of the holidays and fewer people want to buy.  As a result, homes on the market sat longer in October 2008 compared to September, from 92 days to 99:

Further illustrating the slow-season is the months of inventory available in Chandler, moving from just under 6 months on September to just over 8 months in October:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

The increase in inventory in Chandler in October is not a good sign, but was expected given the slower selling season for real estate.

As in previous months, the Chandler single-family real estate market continues to demonstrate a declining market (increased inventory, days on market) with subtle hints of stabilization (increase in the average selling price).

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

The Gilbert, Arizona single-family real estate market saw some positive signs in September 2008.  While prices dropped, they were not as drastic as other southeast valley markets like Tempe or Chandler.  In fact, from August 2008 to September 2008, single-family real estate on average sold at $267,437 and $262,842, respectively.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Unlike other cities in the southeast valley, Gilbert’s selling prices are not declining at such drastic and unpredictable rates.

Year-Over-Year average selling price changes look like this:

Bouncing back from a 35% drop in August to a 25% drop in September, prices are still considerably less than they were a year ago.  However, the decrease in this year-over-year change may indicate that prices are starting to stabilize - especially if we see a similar change in October 2008.

Inventory levels and the average days on market (ADOM) continue to move in the right direction in Gilbert.  The ADOM in Gilbert now sits at the lowest it’s been in 26 months - 74 days.  This is fantastic news for the overall Gilbert market!

The other good news is the inventory level in Gilbert:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Gilbert continues to show stable inventory levels right at around six months.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

Like much of the rest of the southeast Phoenix Valley, Chandler saw a decline in September 2008 in the single-family real estate market.  Great news for buyers and investors but just the opposite for those trying to sell their home or those who have overextended themselves and find their home worth less than when they purchased it two or three years ago.

All of the raw statistical data mentioned in this post can be found here.

From August 2008 to September 2008, selling prices in Chandler dropped from $293,636 to $257,606:

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Chandler.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Chandler.

As we saw in Tempe from July to August 2008, prices in Chandler caught up with Tempe’s nosedive from August to September.  Many factors, including tightening and freezing of the credit markets as well as more investors in the area buying up low-priced foreclosures, short sales and bank-owned properties helped to contribute to the falling average sales price in Chandler.

As a result, average selling prices in Chandler’s single-family real estate market were down 31% from a year ago:

Can we see the light at the end of this dark tunnel yet?  Perhaps.  But, with the recent crash of Wall Street, it’s not likely to happen as quickly as we might like.  The silver lining continues to be the months of inventory and the average selling time for single-family real estate in Chandler.

From August 2008 to September 2008, the average days on market (ADOM) decreased from 102 days to 92 days:

It should be noted that 92 days is the lowest ADOM has been since October 2006! This is good news for sellers but also helps to indicate we may be ‘bottoming out’ in Chandler over the next three to six months.  Only time will tell, however.

Another good sign is the months of inventory available in Chandler:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Since June 2008, the inventory levels in Chandler have stayed below seven months.  In fact, September’s inventory level as 5.87 months.  Better yet, 31 more properties sold in September than August while the total number of homes on the market dropped by 105 in that same timeframe.

It should be noted that September also signals a traditional slower period for real estate sales that continues through much of the rest of the year.  During this time, buyers are more interested in football, school and the holiday season than dealing with the stresses of buying and moving into a new home.  Many sellers are much the same way and would rather wait until the coming new year to deal with the stresses of selling a home.  It will be interesting to see what happens over the last three months of 2008 in terms of inventory and selling prices.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

Like the rest of the Southeast Phoenix Valley, August 2008 brought continued price declines for the single-family real estate market.  However, those lower prices also spurred a slight increase in sales and a decrease in inventory - most likely due to sellers with unrealistic expectations who decided to take their property off the market.  The end result is a Chandler real estate market with less than six months of inventory and an average selling price of $257,543 (a 41% drop from the average selling price a year prior).

Pricing trends for single-family homes in Chandler, Arizona. Click to enlarge. See the raw data here.

Similar to Tempe and Gilbert, selling prices took a dive from July 2008 to August 2008.  With an influx of foreclosures, bank-owned properties and other distressed properties, prices will most likely continue to drop.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Average Days On Market in Chandler, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

Months of Inventory in Chandler, Arizona

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Tempe, Arizona’s real estate market continued to see a dramatic decline in average selling prices when compared to last year at this time.  Inventory in Tempe increased slightly in the single-family home market from July 2008 to August 2008.  Here are the two-year pricing trends for single-family real estate in Tempe, Arizona:

Average real estate prices in Tempe, Arizona's single-family market. Raw data can be found here. Click to enlarge.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Tempe.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Tempe.

Year-Over-Year Selling Price Changes in Tempe, Arizona Single-Family Real Estate Market. Click to enlarge.

The average number of days it takes to sell a single-family home in Tempe, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

Single-family inventory levels in Tempe, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

The increase in inventory levels may be a pattern over the last quarter of this year.  Historically, the last quarter to third of the year (September - December) is a slower selling time for real estate.  The public’s attention is tuned to the new school year and then the holidays - a time when few people have the time or want to take the time to move or relocate … if they have a choice.

This year we’ll most likely continue to see that trend.  Not only is there a traditional real estate market slowdown this time of year - but this year the economy and public are trying to grasp with the financial crisis, how it will be resolved and what the final resolution will mean for home prices.  Regardless of the time of year, this event alone is keeping many traditional real estate buyers out of the market.

Those who are ready-and-able to purchase real estate, however, are greeted with a plethora of inventory across the Phoenix Valley.  Not only that, they will continue to have incredible negotiating power - if not more in the last quarter of 2008 - as a result of fewer buyers.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley?  Relocating and need to buy now?  You can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

Like any industry, the key to success is adaptability and a willingness to change.

The East Valley Tribune had a semi-positive article on the housing market today.  There’s no need to summarize it as you can read it yourself.

What do you think?

The Gilbert, Arizona real estate market continued it’s recent trends of price drops, seeing an average sales price of  $266,863 - down from $274,340 from the month before.

Take a look at this graph which shows the two-year price averages in Gilbert:

Gilbert, Arizona Single-Family Home Prices Over The Past Two Years. Click to enlarge. View raw data.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.

• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.

• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Overall, prices for single-family homes in Gilbert seem to be stablizing right around the $270,000 mark.

Like much of the Phoenix valley, the year-over-year price decline chart is not a pretty picture:

Gilbert Year-Over-Year Price Change. Click to enlarge.

The price of the average sold single-family home in Gilbert dropped 35% from August 2007 to August 2008.  While prices appear to be stablizing around $270,000, this past year has been brutal for homeowners.  Only time will tell if we are actually at the bottom of this real estate market correction.

Single-family homes are continuing to sit on the market for less time:

The average days on market for single-family homes in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

On average, single-family homes in Gilbert are sitting for 91 days before they are sold.  This is the lowest time on market since July 2007, which saw 82 days on the market.  This is a good sign for the real esate market - homeowners who price their home correctly, based on their local market conditions, will sell their home!

Finally, check out this information on the months of inventory in Gilbert:

The months of inventory in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.

• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.

• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

August 2008 inventory levels stayed at around the six-month mark indicating, overall, Gilbert is in a balanced market.  In balanced markets, prices have a better chance at staying stable as supply and demand are in check.

Are we at the proverbial bottom of this correction?  It’s too early to tell.  There are many outside factors that continue to affect consumer confidence including this past weekend’s sale of Merill Lynch to Bank of America and the fall of Lehman Brothers on Wall Street.  Many economists are actually predicting a decline in mortgage rates as a result - which could translate into more buyers jumping into the market.

If you’re interested in purchasing a home in Gilbert, you can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

Party time.

With Labor Day here it means that Phoenix valley residents can take solace in the idea that over the next month we’ll start to see temperatures routinely top out at less than 100 degrees.  Sure, it may be 99 or 98 but there’s something magical to a Phoenician when the high is “only 98″ and doesn’t venture into the triple digits.  I type this as I see this Friday’s high is 110.  Spicy.  September starts out very humid but as the month wanes on the dry air eventually returns and the high-90’s aren’t that bad in the shade or next to a pool.  Or in a beer tent.

Unlike much of the country, Phoenix and its suburbs throw numerous festivals throughout the fall, winter and spring.  We take the summer off because it’s too hot to party unless you’re tubing in a cold river or up north in the cool mountains.  Although September is not nearly as full of festivals as October will be - here are some ideas of what to do during September:

Chandler, AZ

• Downtown Art Walk | Wednesday, September 3 | 5 - 9 PM | What started out less than a year ago as a simple art walk to encourage residents to spend evenings in Historic Downtown Chandler has grown into a very respectable event featuring artists and crafts and even street performances.  Check out Historic Downtown Chandler’s website for more information.  The Art Walk occurs on the first Wednesday of every month.
• GetOut Performing Arts Expo | Saturday, September 6 | 10 AM - 3 PM | Formerly at the Scottsdale Center for the Arts, this FREE morning and afternoon features mini-performances from groups all over the Phoenix valley to give residents a “taste” of what’s to come this performance season.  Afterward, there will be ‘pedal cabs’ whisking you away to Historic Downtown Chandler for lunch and shopping.  Go here for more info.
• Starlight Concert Series | Every Tuesday :: September 9 - October 28 | 7 - 8:30 PM | Every Spring and Fall the City of Chandler has free concerts at Tumbleweed Park on the corner of McQueen and Germann Roads.  For the lineup of what bands will be playing, go here.
• Meadowlark at the Chandler Center For The Arts | Friday, September 19 | 7:30 PM | Not really a festival but I thought I’d mention it because it’s part of the Chandler Center for the Arts‘ FREE summer concert series.  For more information, go here.

Gilbert, Arizona

• 17th Annual So Long To Summer Fest | Saturday, September 27 | Phoenicians like the end of the brutal heat so much that we throw a party to commemorate it.  Have you ever seen a “So Long To Winter Fest” in the Midwest or East Coast?  I didn’t think so.  This fair-like event is centered around families and kids but also includes a food and beverage area and a concert stage.  For more information, surf on over here.

Tempe, Arizona

• ASU Football | Not officially a festival but definitely much fun!  ASU fans and students know how to have a good time.  The party usually starts in the fields and parking lots surrounding Sundevil Stadium and then pours into the bars and restaurants on Mill Avenue after the game.  Arizona State has home games on:
  - Saturday, September 6 | Stanford at ASU | 7 PM | Buy tickets
  - Saturday, September 13 | UNLV at ASU | 7 PM | Buy tickets
• YFest | Saturday, September 6 | 11 AM - 2 PM | YFest at Tempe Marketplace “celebrates and raises awareness of the power of youth to change the world.”  What may be just as interesting are the youth performers  - bands, dancers, singers, etc. - that will fill Tempe Marketplace, an outdoor mall at the corner of Loops 101 and 202.  More information can be found here.
• Way Out West Oktoberfest | October 3, 4 and 5 | Okay, it’s not in September but you should pre-plan now.  There’s a kid-friendly “festival within a festival” at Kinderfest while those who like to indulge in a beer or two can enjoy the many beer tents and concerts at Tempe Beach Park.  Get more info here.

And if you just can’t take this last month of heat, check out the Arizona Republic’s “Fall Festival Guide” for informatin on festivals throughout Arizona, many in cooler locales like Flagstaff.

Hot on the heels of the inaugural episode of ‘Fusion Vision’ is the second episode featuring Arizona Monsoon Storms.  This year we switched from designating the Monsoon Season’s beginning as “three consecutive days of 55+ degree dew points” to “June 15 - September 30.”  The monsoon season brings with it amazing (and dangerous) lightening storms to the Phoenix valley.  Sometimes torrential downpours can occur - in fact, last night’s monsoon storms that are making national news actually brought just under an inch of rain in less than an hour to Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport and winds of 86 miles per hour!

I also heard on the news today that this was the most dangerous monsoon storms since 1996 to hit the Phoenix area - and we loved every minute of it!

Although most of the year Phoenix enjoys a dry heat it’s quite humid this time of the year with dew points sometimes reaching well into the 70’s making it quite miserable!

Here is the second episode of Fusion Vision featuring Arizona’s Monsoon Storms:

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Here are some additional facts on the monsoon.