Phoenix REALTOR

While I usually try to post statistics within the first ten days of the following month for the previous month - the past month has been fairly hectic with a newborn crying, pooping, peeing and otherwise entertaining me.  I usually like to wait at least until the fifth of the following month so that all data loads into the Multiple Listing Service from the previous month - which of course is dependent on diligent agents …

October 2008 brought an upward tick in the average selling price of sold single-family real estate and homes in Tempe, Arizona - similiar to the increases seen in Chandler and Gilbert.  Is it the beginning of a trend?  I truly doubt it as inventory levels in all three southeast Phoenix Valley cities also increased during October.

You can view all the raw data for this article here.

The average selling price of a single-family home in Tempe, Arizona in October 2008 was $271,709.  Fewer homes were sold in October (57 homes sold) than in September (69 homes sold) - and those homes that sold may have been pricier causing the increase in the average selling price from $255,552 in September.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Tempe.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Tempe.

This is actually the second month in a row where the average selling price has increased in Tempe.  However, it’s still a 23% drop in prices when compared to a year ago:

However, if you look at both of the graphs above you could almost devise that before a big drop in prices there is a leveling off or slight increase before they fall off a cliff again… kind of like looking at a NASDAQ graph!

Another sign of possible stability would be the time it takes from homes to sell in Tempe.  Unfortunately, that time increased from 76 days in September to 94 days in October:

The total inventory in Tempe stayed near constant from September to October - 529 to 533 homes for sale, respectively.  However, a drop in the total homes sold - 69 to 57 - resulted in the months of inventory in Tempe to increase from 7.67 months in September to 8.5 months in October.  The graph below is actually rounded to the nearest whole month, but shows a steady increase in inventory for the past five months:

Most experts agree that a “stable real estate market” is right around the six-months of inventory mark.  The total months  of inventory in Tempe is bound to increase the rest of this year during a slower real estate selling season.  Likewise, prices will most likely revert to decreasing as fewer buyers have more choices and bargaining power.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search- giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

There was a lovely surprise - almost like an early Christmas present - in the single-family real estate market in Gilbert, Arizona during the month of October 2008.  I’m not sure I believe the stat, but the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service says it’s so - the average selling price from September to October increased from $262,842 to $281,448.  That’s in-line with the increase in selling price as reported yesterday for Chandler.  I’ll take that, but what I have a hard time digesting is that according to the MLS, the average selling price of $281,448 was above the average selling list price (the average listing price of property before the final selling price is agreed upon) $276,624.  That means that on average, homes in Gilbert sold for 101.74% of the listed price.  Crazy talk.  Read the data here.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

When compared to the previous year, prices in Gilbert are down 14%.  The graph below illustrates that prices, year-over-year, may be starting to stablize after a huge dip earlier this year.

Another nice thing to see is the ‘Average Days on Market.’  This is the number of days the average property in Gilbert sits on the market before receiving a contract that’s eventually accepted.  The ADOM in Gilbert for October was 75 days, up just one day from September’s 74.

That’s good - considering we’ve entered a slower selling season for real estate.  The interesting thing is that the total months of inventory - the time it would take to sell all the homes on the market if no new homes were added and the selling pace stayed the same - increased from just over 6 months to about 7.5 months:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

With Gilbert’s inventory increasing well above the six month inventory mark, we’re bound to see prices continue to retreat in the coming months as traditional sales continue to slow and bank-owned and foreclosed homes continue to be half or more of the sales on the market.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search- giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

There were few positive signs in the Chandler, Arizona single-family real estate market in October 2008.  The most positive statistic was that the average selling price rose nearly $20,000 from the previous month.  However, the average days a single-family home in Chandler sat on the market rose after falling for the previous four months while the months of inventory increased pretty dramatically.

The average selling price in Chandler in October 2008 was $277,662, up from $257,606 in September.  On average, homes that went under contract in October did so at just under 96% of the listing/asking price.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Chandler.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Chandler.

Compared to a year earlier, prices in Chandler have declined by 17%.  Check out the graph below, which indicates that price declines may be starting to stabilize:

If going just off the graph above, it may indicate that prices are starting to stablize.  However, one piece of information is never enough to make valid conclusions.  We are entering the slower real estate season as school is in full swing, families are thinking of the holidays and fewer people want to buy.  As a result, homes on the market sat longer in October 2008 compared to September, from 92 days to 99:

Further illustrating the slow-season is the months of inventory available in Chandler, moving from just under 6 months on September to just over 8 months in October:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

The increase in inventory in Chandler in October is not a good sign, but was expected given the slower selling season for real estate.

As in previous months, the Chandler single-family real estate market continues to demonstrate a declining market (increased inventory, days on market) with subtle hints of stabilization (increase in the average selling price).

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

The Gilbert, Arizona single-family real estate market saw some positive signs in September 2008.  While prices dropped, they were not as drastic as other southeast valley markets like Tempe or Chandler.  In fact, from August 2008 to September 2008, single-family real estate on average sold at $267,437 and $262,842, respectively.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Unlike other cities in the southeast valley, Gilbert’s selling prices are not declining at such drastic and unpredictable rates.

Year-Over-Year average selling price changes look like this:

Bouncing back from a 35% drop in August to a 25% drop in September, prices are still considerably less than they were a year ago.  However, the decrease in this year-over-year change may indicate that prices are starting to stabilize - especially if we see a similar change in October 2008.

Inventory levels and the average days on market (ADOM) continue to move in the right direction in Gilbert.  The ADOM in Gilbert now sits at the lowest it’s been in 26 months - 74 days.  This is fantastic news for the overall Gilbert market!

The other good news is the inventory level in Gilbert:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Gilbert continues to show stable inventory levels right at around six months.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

Like much of the rest of the southeast Phoenix Valley, Chandler saw a decline in September 2008 in the single-family real estate market.  Great news for buyers and investors but just the opposite for those trying to sell their home or those who have overextended themselves and find their home worth less than when they purchased it two or three years ago.

All of the raw statistical data mentioned in this post can be found here.

From August 2008 to September 2008, selling prices in Chandler dropped from $293,636 to $257,606:

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Chandler.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Chandler.

As we saw in Tempe from July to August 2008, prices in Chandler caught up with Tempe’s nosedive from August to September.  Many factors, including tightening and freezing of the credit markets as well as more investors in the area buying up low-priced foreclosures, short sales and bank-owned properties helped to contribute to the falling average sales price in Chandler.

As a result, average selling prices in Chandler’s single-family real estate market were down 31% from a year ago:

Can we see the light at the end of this dark tunnel yet?  Perhaps.  But, with the recent crash of Wall Street, it’s not likely to happen as quickly as we might like.  The silver lining continues to be the months of inventory and the average selling time for single-family real estate in Chandler.

From August 2008 to September 2008, the average days on market (ADOM) decreased from 102 days to 92 days:

It should be noted that 92 days is the lowest ADOM has been since October 2006! This is good news for sellers but also helps to indicate we may be ‘bottoming out’ in Chandler over the next three to six months.  Only time will tell, however.

Another good sign is the months of inventory available in Chandler:

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Since June 2008, the inventory levels in Chandler have stayed below seven months.  In fact, September’s inventory level as 5.87 months.  Better yet, 31 more properties sold in September than August while the total number of homes on the market dropped by 105 in that same timeframe.

It should be noted that September also signals a traditional slower period for real estate sales that continues through much of the rest of the year.  During this time, buyers are more interested in football, school and the holiday season than dealing with the stresses of buying and moving into a new home.  Many sellers are much the same way and would rather wait until the coming new year to deal with the stresses of selling a home.  It will be interesting to see what happens over the last three months of 2008 in terms of inventory and selling prices.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley? Relocating and need to buy now? You can search our home search website - buyyourphoenixhome.com - casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

Like the rest of the Southeast Phoenix Valley, August 2008 brought continued price declines for the single-family real estate market.  However, those lower prices also spurred a slight increase in sales and a decrease in inventory - most likely due to sellers with unrealistic expectations who decided to take their property off the market.  The end result is a Chandler real estate market with less than six months of inventory and an average selling price of $257,543 (a 41% drop from the average selling price a year prior).

Pricing trends for single-family homes in Chandler, Arizona. Click to enlarge. See the raw data here.

Similar to Tempe and Gilbert, selling prices took a dive from July 2008 to August 2008.  With an influx of foreclosures, bank-owned properties and other distressed properties, prices will most likely continue to drop.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Average Days On Market in Chandler, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

Months of Inventory in Chandler, Arizona

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

Tempe, Arizona’s real estate market continued to see a dramatic decline in average selling prices when compared to last year at this time.  Inventory in Tempe increased slightly in the single-family home market from July 2008 to August 2008.  Here are the two-year pricing trends for single-family real estate in Tempe, Arizona:

Average real estate prices in Tempe, Arizona's single-family market. Raw data can be found here. Click to enlarge.

In the graph above:

• the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Tempe.
• the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
• the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Tempe.

Year-Over-Year Selling Price Changes in Tempe, Arizona Single-Family Real Estate Market. Click to enlarge.

The average number of days it takes to sell a single-family home in Tempe, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

Single-family inventory levels in Tempe, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As a reminder:

• Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
• More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
• Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

The increase in inventory levels may be a pattern over the last quarter of this year.  Historically, the last quarter to third of the year (September - December) is a slower selling time for real estate.  The public’s attention is tuned to the new school year and then the holidays - a time when few people have the time or want to take the time to move or relocate … if they have a choice.

This year we’ll most likely continue to see that trend.  Not only is there a traditional real estate market slowdown this time of year - but this year the economy and public are trying to grasp with the financial crisis, how it will be resolved and what the final resolution will mean for home prices.  Regardless of the time of year, this event alone is keeping many traditional real estate buyers out of the market.

Those who are ready-and-able to purchase real estate, however, are greeted with a plethora of inventory across the Phoenix Valley.  Not only that, they will continue to have incredible negotiating power - if not more in the last quarter of 2008 - as a result of fewer buyers.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley?  Relocating and need to buy now?  You can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

We’re diving into video.  And we’re not talking home virtual tours with a slideshow of Carl Burns effected photos - they’re yesterday’s news.  We’re actually not even talking about specific homes.

Today, we’re proud to bring you Fusion Vision!  The goal is to bring readers a firsthand look at (mostly) Southeast Phoenix Valley communities and attractions.  From housing communities and buildings to favorite restaurants to quick tours of shopping areas and scenic attractions, Fusion Vision is our way of bringing a little piece of the Valley of the Sun to people all over the world.

Fusion Vision is by no means a professionally cut end product.  Fusion Vision is created by a man and his will… and an Apple MacBook, iMovie software and a fantastic Panasonic LUMIX DCM-TZ5 digital camera that records both HD video as well as takes fantastic photographs.

So, drum roll please …

By the way, if you want to get the feel for a Fusion Power Search personal website, you can view our sample site for Seville here as well as get a feel for the vast range of homes on the resale market in Seville.  At posting, listings ranged from $170,000 to $2.7M.

• Username: sevillesample
• Password: fusionpower
• Fusion Power Search Website

With a Fusion Power Search, you have your own, personal and secure website that constantly updates from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  You can save your favorite homes, throw out ones you don’t like, view all homes or just your favorites on a map - even cross reference homes with tax information.  You can also ask additional questions on a listing or schedule a time to view your favorite homes in person!

Fusion Power Search is a result of the fantastic new MLS system we have here in Phoenix.

USAToday website on August 26, 2008

There you have it!  USAToday shows the first “glimmer of hope” article I’ve seen in the mainstream media since the housing market began to tank.

There’s no need to repeat the article, you can read it here.  In general, the report from USAToday aligns with the year-over-year price drops that we recently posted for Tempe, Chandler and Gilbert.  USAToday reported a 27.9% drop in the Phoenix market over the past year.

The media plays an important role in creating the public’s mood for many things, including the real estate market.  So it’s nice to see a non-doom-and-gloom story.  As always, buyers and sellers should look at the actual and most recent data from a real estate professional and decide for themselves if now is a good time to buy or sell real estate.