Like the rest of the Southeast Phoenix Valley, August 2008 brought continued price declines for the single-family real estate market.  However, those lower prices also spurred a slight increase in sales and a decrease in inventory - most likely due to sellers with unrealistic expectations who decided to take their property off the market.  The end result is a Chandler real estate market with less than six months of inventory and an average selling price of $257,543 (a 41% drop from the average selling price a year prior).

 

Pricing trends for single-family homes in Chandler, Arizona.  Click to enlarge.  See the raw data here.

Pricing trends for single-family homes in Chandler, Arizona. Click to enlarge. See the raw data here.

Similar to Tempe and Gilbert, selling prices took a dive from July 2008 to August 2008.  With an influx of foreclosures, bank-owned properties and other distressed properties, prices will most likely continue to drop.

In the graph above:

  • the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
  • the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
  • the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.
The year-over-year price change looks like a cliff when graphed out:
From August 2007 to August 2008, the average selling price of a single-family home in Chandler, Arizona has dropped 41%.
While prices have dropped dramatically it may be allowing buyers who previously couldn’t afford a home to enter the market.  As a result, homes are sitting on the market for less time:
Average Days On Market in Chandler, Arizona.  Click to enlarge.

Average Days On Market in Chandler, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

At 92 days, this is the lowest level for the average days on market in Chandler since October 2007.  
Another bright spot for Chandler is the amount of inventory currently on the single-family market:
Months of Inventory in Chandler, Arizona's single-family real estate market.  Click to enlarge.

Months of Inventory in Chandler, Arizona

As a reminder:

  • Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
  • More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
  • Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.
At 5.84 (rounded up to six on the graph) months, Chandler is sitting at a fairly balanced market from an inventory standpoint.  However, in a market like this, where 374 of the 1796 single-family homes (or just under 21%) on the market are either short sales, pre-foreclosures or bank-owned, prices will continue to decline and inventory levels alone won’t dictate whether the overall market is balanced or not.
 
It’s fairly obvious, based on the overall data, that prices will most likely continue to decline this fall in Chandler, Arizona’s single-family real estate market.

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Tempe, Arizona’s real estate market continued to see a dramatic decline in average selling prices when compared to last year at this time.  Inventory in Tempe increased slightly in the single-family home market from July 2008 to August 2008.  Here are the two-year pricing trends for single-family real estate in Tempe, Arizona:

 

Average real estate prices in Tempe, Arizona's single-family market.

Average real estate prices in Tempe, Arizona's single-family market. Raw data can be found here. Click to enlarge.

 

In the graph above:

  • the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Tempe.
  • the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
  • the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Tempe.
In August 2008, prices took quite a nosedive - most likely due to the increase in foreclosures on the market.  The average selling price was $253,397.  Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) data indicates that there were 17 homes that closed escrow that were lender-owned (the home had already gone through the stages of foreclosure and the previous owner lost it and now the home is owned by the bank), pre-foreclosure (the owner is behind on payments and trying to sell the home before it’s lost to the bank) or a short sale (the bank had to approve a sale less than the mortgage payoff amount).  The average selling price of those 17 homes was $221,695.  There were an additional 15 homes pending to close escrow with an average listing price of $216,065.
Of the 81 single-family homes that sold in August 2008, 17 were either in some stage of foreclosure or owned by a bank which accounts for just under 21% of the market.  With at least 15 homes ready to close in September with an average list price of $216,065 - price declines in Tempe will continue.  As of posting this article, there were currently 54 homes listed as pre-foreclosure, lender-owned or short sales in Tempe, or just under 10% of the active market.
Year-Over-Year, this indicates a 35% drop:
Year-Over-Year Selling Price Changes in Tempe, Arizona's Single-Family Real Estate Market.

Year-Over-Year Selling Price Changes in Tempe, Arizona Single-Family Real Estate Market. Click to enlarge.

August 2008 represents the largest drop in year-over-year selling prices over the past two years.
The average number of days to sell a home, however, continued to drop in Tempe during the month of August.  The average days on the market (ADOM) in Tempe, Arizona’s single-family real estate market is now 82 days:
The average number of days it takes to sell a single-family home in Tempe, Arizona.

The average number of days it takes to sell a single-family home in Tempe, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

While the average days on market did decline slightly in August, inventory levels rose from July to August from just over 6 months to just under 7 months:
Single-family inventory levels in Tempe, Arizona.

Single-family inventory levels in Tempe, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As a reminder:

  • Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
  • More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.”In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
  • Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

The increase in inventory levels may be a pattern over the last quarter of this year.  Historically, the last quarter to third of the year (September - December) is a slower selling time for real estate.  The public’s attention is tuned to the new school year and then the holidays - a time when few people have the time or want to take the time to move or relocate … if they have a choice.

This year we’ll most likely continue to see that trend.  Not only is there a traditional real estate market slowdown this time of year - but this year the economy and public are trying to grasp with the financial crisis, how it will be resolved and what the final resolution will mean for home prices.  Regardless of the time of year, this event alone is keeping many traditional real estate buyers out of the market.

Those who are ready-and-able to purchase real estate, however, are greeted with a plethora of inventory across the Phoenix Valley.  Not only that, they will continue to have incredible negotiating power - if not more in the last quarter of 2008 - as a result of fewer buyers.

Are you ready to purchase real estate in the Phoenix Valley?  Relocating and need to buy now?  You can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

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Oktoberfest In Downtown Chandler

by Brad Shaffer on September 26, 2008

Grab your liederhausen and thirst for great beer and join thousands at Chandler’s Oktoberfest tomorrow in Historic Downtown Chandler!  Sponsored by San Tan Brewing Company and a celebration of their first anniversary, Oktoberfest will feature bands, brewers and a beer-maid contest.

Chandler Oktoberfest

The event will feature San Tan Brewing Company’s fantastic beers as well as booths from other vedors like BJ’s Brewing Company, Rock Bottom Brewing, Brewer’s Den, Gordon Biersch and Prescott Brewing Company.

The beer tent will feature bands from the area as well as a Beer-Maid contest.  The winner will win $4,000 and represent San Tan Brewing Company in future events:

  • 5 PM: Polka Band
  • 6:30 PM: Guys That Rock (Chandler, AZ)
  • 8 PM: Beer-Maid Contest ($4,000 Grand Prize)
  •  9:30 PM: Capital Down (Tempe, AZ)
Oktoberfest is a perfect opportunity for those who haven’t seen Historic Downtown Chandler recently to discover how much it’s changed in the past few years.  Historic Downtown Chandler has a great array of unique shoppes and non-corporate restaurants.  I’ve said it before - Historic Downtown Chandler has some of the best “everyday restaurants” in the valley all within walking distance from each other.

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Finding Success In This Real Estate Market

by Brad Shaffer on September 21, 2008

Like any industry, the key to success is adaptability and a willingness to change.

The East Valley Tribune had a semi-positive article on the housing market today.  There’s no need to summarize it as you can read it yourself.

What do you think?

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The Gilbert, Arizona real estate market continued it’s recent trends of price drops, seeing an average sales price of  $266,863 - down from $274,340 from the month before.

Take a look at this graph which shows the two-year price averages in Gilbert:

Gilbert, Arizona Single-Family Home Prices Over The Past Two Years

Gilbert, Arizona Single-Family Home Prices Over The Past Two Years. Click to enlarge. View raw data.

In the graph above:

  • the blue line indicates the average price of single-family homes currently listed in Gilbert.
  • the green line indicates the list price for single-family homes before being sold. In other words, this is the average price for all listings that went under contract before the final sales price was agreed upon by the buyer and seller through contract negotiations.
  • the yellow line indicates what the average sales price was for single-family homes in Gilbert.

Overall, prices for single-family homes in Gilbert seem to be stablizing right around the $270,000 mark.

Like much of the Phoenix valley, the year-over-year price decline chart is not a pretty picture:

Gilbert Year-Over-Year Price Change

Gilbert Year-Over-Year Price Change. Click to enlarge.

The price of the average sold single-family home in Gilbert dropped 35% from August 2007 to August 2008.  While prices appear to be stablizing around $270,000, this past year has been brutal for homeowners.  Only time will tell if we are actually at the bottom of this real estate market correction.

Single-family homes are continuing to sit on the market for less time:

The average days on market for single-family homes in Gilbert, Arizona.

The average days on market for single-family homes in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

On average, single-family homes in Gilbert are sitting for 91 days before they are sold.  This is the lowest time on market since July 2007, which saw 82 days on the market.  This is a good sign for the real esate market - homeowners who price their home correctly, based on their local market conditions, will sell their home!

Finally, check out this information on the months of inventory in Gilbert:

The months of inventory in Gilbert, Arizona's single-family real estate market.

The months of inventory in Gilbert, Arizona. Click to enlarge.

As a reminder:

  • Less than six months of inventory indicates a “seller’s market.” In a seller’s market there are more buyers than there are homes to purchase. As a result, real estate prices may increase during a seller’s market because there is less inventory than there are buyers. This is what happened during the 2004 - 2006 real estate boom in Phoenix.
  • More than six months of inventory indicates a “buyer’s market.” In a buyer’s market, real estate will often sell below the listing price because there are more buyers than inventory. Much of the country has experienced an extreme buyer’s market over the past year or two.
  • Six months of inventory indicates a “balanced market.” This is the most desirable market for buyers and sellers alike. Homes will typically sell near listing price because there is a balanced amount of inventory when compared to buyers. Sellers who market their property correctly and at the current market price will often receive an offer near that list price. Buyers are more confident in purchasing because prices are stable or appreciating.

August 2008 inventory levels stayed at around the six-month mark indicating, overall, Gilbert is in a balanced market.  In balanced markets, prices have a better chance at staying stable as supply and demand are in check.

Are we at the proverbial bottom of this correction?  It’s too early to tell.  There are many outside factors that continue to affect consumer confidence including this past weekend’s sale of Merill Lynch to Bank of America and the fall of Lehman Brothers on Wall Street.  Many economists are actually predicting a decline in mortgage rates as a result - which could translate into more buyers jumping into the market.

If you’re interested in purchasing a home in Gilbert, you can search our site casually or set up a fusionpower search - giving you a powerful personal and secure webpage with homes that meet your search criteria!

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As a result of the Freddie and Fannie fallout - mortgage rates have dropped quite a bit today!  This is great news for buyers who have been turned off by the recent spike in rates as well as for those who want to refinance to lower their rate.

Check out these articles for some great information on what the Freddie and Fannie fallout means to you:

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Party time.

Party time.

With Labor Day here it means that Phoenix valley residents can take solace in the idea that over the next month we’ll start to see temperatures routinely top out at less than 100 degrees.  Sure, it may be 99 or 98 but there’s something magical to a Phoenician when the high is “only 98″ and doesn’t venture into the triple digits.  I type this as I see this Friday’s high is 110.  Spicy.  September starts out very humid but as the month wanes on the dry air eventually returns and the high-90’s aren’t that bad in the shade or next to a pool.  Or in a beer tent.

Unlike much of the country, Phoenix and its suburbs throw numerous festivals throughout the fall, winter and spring.  We take the summer off because it’s too hot to party unless you’re tubing in a cold river or up north in the cool mountains.  Although September is not nearly as full of festivals as October will be - here are some ideas of what to do during September:

Chandler, AZ

  • Downtown Art Walk | Wednesday, September 3 | 5 - 9 PM | What started out less than a year ago as a simple art walk to encourage residents to spend evenings in Historic Downtown Chandler has grown into a very respectable event featuring artists and crafts and even street performances.  Check out Historic Downtown Chandler’s website for more information.  The Art Walk occurs on the first Wednesday of every month.
  • GetOut Performing Arts Expo | Saturday, September 6 | 10 AM - 3 PM | Formerly at the Scottsdale Center for the Arts, this FREE morning and afternoon features mini-performances from groups all over the Phoenix valley to give residents a “taste” of what’s to come this performance season.  Afterward, there will be ‘pedal cabs’ whisking you away to Historic Downtown Chandler for lunch and shopping.  Go here for more info.
  • Starlight Concert Series | Every Tuesday :: September 9 - October 28 | 7 - 8:30 PM | Every Spring and Fall the City of Chandler has free concerts at Tumbleweed Park on the corner of McQueen and Germann Roads.  For the lineup of what bands will be playing, go here.
  • Meadowlark at the Chandler Center For The Arts | Friday, September 19 | 7:30 PM | Not really a festival but I thought I’d mention it because it’s part of the Chandler Center for the Arts‘ FREE summer concert series.  For more information, go here.

Gilbert, Arizona

  • 17th Annual So Long To Summer Fest | Saturday, September 27 | Phoenicians like the end of the brutal heat so much that we throw a party to commemorate it.  Have you ever seen a “So Long To Winter Fest” in the Midwest or East Coast?  I didn’t think so.  This fair-like event is centered around families and kids but also includes a food and beverage area and a concert stage.  For more information, surf on over here.

Tempe, Arizona

  • ASU Football | Not officially a festival but definitely much fun!  ASU fans and students know how to have a good time.  The party usually starts in the fields and parking lots surrounding Sundevil Stadium and then pours into the bars and restaurants on Mill Avenue after the game.  Arizona State has home games on:
    - Saturday, September 6 | Stanford at ASU | 7 PM | Buy tickets
    - Saturday, September 13 | UNLV at ASU | 7 PM | Buy tickets
  • YFest | Saturday, September 6 | 11 AM - 2 PM | YFest at Tempe Marketplace “celebrates and raises awareness of the power of youth to change the world.”  What may be just as interesting are the youth performers  - bands, dancers, singers, etc. - that will fill Tempe Marketplace, an outdoor mall at the corner of Loops 101 and 202.  More information can be found here.
  • Way Out West Oktoberfest | October 3, 4 and 5 | Okay, it’s not in September but you should pre-plan now.  There’s a kid-friendly “festival within a festival” at Kinderfest while those who like to indulge in a beer or two can enjoy the many beer tents and concerts at Tempe Beach Park.  Get more info here.

And if you just can’t take this last month of heat, check out the Arizona Republic’s “Fall Festival Guide” for informatin on festivals throughout Arizona, many in cooler locales like Flagstaff.

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Welcome Back, College Football

by Brad Shaffer on August 30, 2008

An idea I’ve borrowed from another real estate blogger, Chad Huck

Go Indiana Hoosiers! (We always need football support)

Go Tennesee Volunteers!

Go Arizona Sundevils!

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Fusion Vision Brings You Arizona Monsoon Storms

by Brad Shaffer on August 29, 2008

Hot on the heels of the inaugural episode of ‘Fusion Vision’ is the second episode featuring Arizona Monsoon Storms.  This year we switched from designating the Monsoon Season’s beginning as “three consecutive days of 55+ degree dew points” to “June 15 - September 30.”  The monsoon season brings with it amazing (and dangerous) lightening storms to the Phoenix valley.  Sometimes torrential downpours can occur - in fact, last night’s monsoon storms that are making national news actually brought just under an inch of rain in less than an hour to Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport and winds of 86 miles per hour!

I also heard on the news today that this was the most dangerous monsoon storms since 1996 to hit the Phoenix area - and we loved every minute of it!

Although most of the year Phoenix enjoys a dry heat it’s quite humid this time of the year with dew points sometimes reaching well into the 70’s making it quite miserable!

Here is the second episode of Fusion Vision featuring Arizona’s Monsoon Storms:

[If you are reading via a Feed Reader you'll need to click through to view and to comment]

Here are some additional facts on the monsoon.

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We’re diving into video.  And we’re not talking home virtual tours with a slideshow of Carl Burns effected photos - they’re yesterday’s news.  We’re actually not even talking about specific homes.

Today, we’re proud to bring you Fusion Vision!  The goal is to bring readers a firsthand look at (mostly) Southeast Phoenix Valley communities and attractions.  From housing communities and buildings to favorite restaurants to quick tours of shopping areas and scenic attractions, Fusion Vision is our way of bringing a little piece of the Valley of the Sun to people all over the world.

Fusion Vision is by no means a professionally cut end product.  Fusion Vision is created by a man and his will… and an Apple MacBook, iMovie software and a fantastic Panasonic LUMIX DCM-TZ5 digital camera that records both HD video as well as takes fantastic photographs.

So, drum roll please …

By the way, if you want to get the feel for a Fusion Power Search personal website, you can view our sample site for Seville here as well as get a feel for the vast range of homes on the resale market in Seville.  At posting, listings ranged from $170,000 to $2.7M.

With a Fusion Power Search, you have your own, personal and secure website that constantly updates from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  You can save your favorite homes, throw out ones you don’t like, view all homes or just your favorites on a map - even cross reference homes with tax information.  You can also ask additional questions on a listing or schedule a time to view your favorite homes in person!

Fusion Power Search is a result of the fantastic new MLS system we have here in Phoenix.

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